In an environment of surging U.S. deficits and monetary easing, former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes delivered a critical review this week of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s fiscal and monetary strategies. Hayes highlighted the complexity and rise of bond yields and the role of bitcoin as a fiscal counterbalance.
Hayes: ‘The Smartest Trade Is Going Long Crypto’
On Thursday, Arthur Hayes explained the precarious balance the Treasury’s Janet Yellen must strike in managing U.S. fiscal health amid rising government deficits. Hayes describes Yellen’s strategic options, including liquidity injections and manipulating Federal Reserve rate expectations, to manage economic growth and government funding.
“Inject liquidity into the system so that stocks rise. When stocks pump, capital gains taxes rise, which helps pay some bills,” Hayes detailed in his latest missive called “Bad Gurl.”
Hayes speaks to the rising yields on long-term U.S. debt and the market’s negative response to Treasury strategies. He presents the “bear steepener” scenario as a challenge to financial stability, explaining, “Yields on long-end treasury debt are rising faster than short-end yields,” which could undermine banking solvency. Hayes’ previous work, “The Periphery,” delves into why this steepening is particularly toxic for the banking system.
In his analysis, Hayes points out the global reverberations of U.S. monetary policy, suggesting that other central banks will engage in similar quantitative easing tactics. “All other major central banks … will also print money,” he asserts, viewing it as an inevitable response to the Fed’s easing, creating a global ripple of fiscal expansion that may redefine the international monetary balance.
For investors, Hayes recommends shunning long-term bonds in favor of more liquid and short-term investments. He suggests that the RRP (Reverse Repo Program) balance is key to understanding the immediate investment landscape. A trillion-dollar liquidity injection will power a rising U.S. stock market, Hayes predicts, advocating for a diversified approach to asset allocation amid these shifts.
Diving into cryptocurrency, Hayes champions bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) as foundational assets within the digital currency sphere, outperforming traditional investment vehicles amidst central bank balance expansions. “Bitcoin and ether are crypto’s reserve assets,” he states, asserting their dominance over “sh**coins” and other altcoins in terms of development, application activity, and locked value.
Hayes forecasts that the RRP’s reduction will inject liquidity into global markets, strengthening crypto’s position. He outlines a potential scenario where dollar liquidity swells, Treasury bill sales surge, and Bitcoin investment trends sharpen. “The RRP drawdown is a goal,” Hayes notes, marking it as a pivotal indicator for future fiscal and monetary policy decisions.
Emphasizing big tech’s resilience and growth potential, Hayes highlights companies with ties to artificial intelligence (AI) as smart investments in a liquidity-rich economy. “AI is the future,” he asserts, linking technological advancement to economic growth and suggesting that investments in AI could see significant returns as cash becomes “trash” once more. Hayes says the “smartest trade is going long crypto.” The former Bitmex CEO added:
There is nothing else that has outperformed the increase in central bank balances sheets like crypto. The first stop is always bitcoin. Bitcoin is money and only money. The next stop is ether. Ether is the commodity that powers the Ethereum network which is the best internet computer.
Asserting bitcoin’s resilience, Hayes contrasts its performance with traditional assets during economic or geopolitical strife. He reflects on bitcoin’s robust response to market unrest, suggesting that it remains a wise investment despite potential short-term sell-offs. “Bitcoin has proven to outperform bonds during times of war,” Hayes remarks, reaffirming his confidence in the leading crypto asset as a hedge against inflation and instability.
What are your thoughts on the former Bitmex CEO’s comments regarding Yellen, Treasury bonds, and bitcoin? Share your views on this topic in the comments section below.