Pennsylvania Holds Key to 2016 Election

After hundreds of millions of dollars, countless rallies, events, forums and debates, controversies and scandals, the winner of the 2016 election is likely to come down to Pennsylvania. Up to a dozen other states are important and have large roles to play in the presidential drama, no doubt. Barring some extraordinary event, the Keystone State will live up to its nickname as both parties build their bridges over Pennsylvania to the White House. Recent public polling in Pennsylvania shows a toss-up race between Hillary Clinton and Donal Trump. Clinton maintains a 4-point edge in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, largely because of a late-April NBC survey that showed her leading Trump by 15 points. That NBC survey is wildly divergent from other polling and is likely an outlier. Beyond its bounty of 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is critical this election for another reason. Trump’s unconventional candidacy is premised on this ability to attract more blue-collar and white working-class voters to the Republican party. Trump has made opposition to globalization and poorly negotiated trade deals a central argument in his campaign. The economic deterioration of states like Pennsylvania is itself a predicate to Trump’s principal campaign message. If Trump is able