Bloomberg: Brexit, Trump, Le Pen All Connected

From Bloomberg: In 1999, the historian Norman Davies predicted the breakup of the U.K. There was nothing inevitable about the union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, he wrote in “The Isles,” and no reason to think it could withstand the competing nationalisms it contained. Likewise the European Union. In less than 24 hours, the world will know whether Britons dismissed the warnings of countless experts — and their own leaders — that they risked grievous self-inflicted harm by voting to leave the 28-nation bloc. “Nothing stands still,” says Davies, whose history of the British Isles foreshadowed Scotland’s 2014 bid to secede. “Everything is moving in some direction or another.” The drift today demonstrates a growing lack of faith in the institutions that secured relative peace and prosperity for three generations of Europeans and Americans. Moreover, the Brexit campaign shows that many are willing to throw these over without a credible replacement in view. The British debate over exiting the EU has echoes around the world. It draws from the same cocktail of grievances as nationalist movements across Europe, as well as Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in the U.S., according to interviews with historians, pollsters, analysts and former diplomats.