The short answer to the question is: no one really knows. And to the Douglas Carswells and Suzanne Evans of the world reading this: you don’t know either. And the reason I can say that – having given it a bit of thought – is because there are too many variables involved now. I’m told of briefings and counter-briefings, aggression, surreptitious fundraising, plots, slates, and more. It’s all going a bit House of Cards, without the attractive people, or wit, or knowing complexity. There’s plenty of intrigue though. Topped off by Paul Nuttall, the favourite, dropping out of the race yesterday. It was even surprising to even those at the top of the food chain in UKIP. Just a few days ago Team Nuttall were phoning around Westminster journalists trying to pitch negative stories about Steven Woolfe MEP. Now he’s out? And just a week after saying that he supported the party allowed Suzanne Evans to stand in the election, despite the party rule book being very clear on the issue. (No surprises therefore that just last night Evans was calling for Farage to be deposed immediately, replaced by Nuttall as “interim leader” who would appoint a new party chairman to